Can AI Thrive in a Competitive Market?
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The landscape of stock trading in A-shares is witnessing intense financial maneuvering.
Recently, several hotspots in the market have exhibited dramatic ups and downs, particularly within the realms of artificial intelligence (AI), humanoid robots, and semiconductorsThe DeepSeek concept has notably catalyzed a bullish trend in AI, leading to apparent volatility as funds shift rapidly between sectors.
This AI bull market raises an essential question: Is it driven by thematic investments or rooted in fundamental analysis? How transformative can the combination of AI and various industries be when redefining low valuations in healthcare, media, education, and beyond? Journalists from Securities China recently engaged industry experts, including Wu Haijian from Western Leading Fund, Lei Tao from Debon Fund, and Liu Zhongteng from Jin Ying Fund’s equity research team, to delve into the opportunities and challenges brewing beneath the AI market surge.
One notable viewpoint from a fund manager suggests that the debate over whether DeepSeek’s theme can pivot to fundamental investment hinges on the actual implementation of AI technologies and their resultant impact on company performancePresently, the AI+ industry combination remains in its infancy, and success is not guaranteed across all fields vying to adopt AI effectivelyThe market exuberance may reflect deeper contemplations by participants regarding the influence of DeepSeek on the future of the AI sector.
Accelerated rotation of hot sectors showcases the significant fluctuations within AI stocks.
In the past weeks, marked volatility has been evident in popular segments of stocks associated with AI, humanoid robots, and semiconductors, especially with the DeepSeek concept driving this AI bull market
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The magnitude of fund rotation among different sectors is particularly noteworthy.
For instance, on February 18, the Wind DeepSeek Index noted an intraday drop exceeding 3%, leading to multiple concept stocks such as Fanwei Network, Data Harbor, and MegSmart reaching their daily limitsHowever, by February 19, there was a robust recovery with Tai Chi Shares hitting its upper limit, and Data Harbor along with Daily Interaction surging over 5%.
Several fund managers anticipated the oscillations seen with the DeepSeek conceptWu Haijian shared insights with Securities China, stating that whether thematic investments can transition into fundamentally driven investments heavily depends on whether companies can leverage AI effectively enough to enhance efficiency, reduce costs, or innovate business models, which must ultimately reflect positively in financial statementsShould these elements remain only at the concept level without tangible results, the initial enthusiasm may wane, leading to fluctuations in valuations.
“At the heart of this development is the ability to identify businesses that can truly utilize DeepSeek technology to enhance operational dataHowever, achieving this is not straightforwardCompanies must identify sufficient practical applications, and establish commercial viability within those applications for any real data improvement,” noted Lei Tao.
In pondering whether the DeepSeek theme will evolve into a fundamentally driven investment, Guo Liangliang argued that this ultimately depends on observing how industry logic unfolds and whether listed companies produce observable resultsWithout tangible outcomes, thematic investment subjects may struggle to escape substantial corrections following initial hype, while companies supported by performance growth may see their values rise after brief corrections
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Before any performance metrics become evident, variations in proactive industry indicators, such as user acquisition rates for DeepSeek applications or enhancements in revenue growth for cloud computing companies, warrant attention.
“It is entirely feasible for thematic investments to morph into fundamental investments—this is merely a question of aligning industrial advancements with investment timing,” asserted Liu ZhongtengHe posited that fields such as comprehensive AI—including large models, smart vehicles, and humanoid robotics—are expected to gradually revolutionize and modernize traditional sectors, driving efficiency and cost reductionsFrom an industrial perspective, the trajectory of AI agents leading towards artificial general intelligence (AGI) will likely see a breakneck evolution over the next 2-3 years, suggesting that the thematic investments may indeed transition into foundational ones.
“AI+ industry combinations are still in their nascent stages.”
In the wake of a surge in AI-related concepts, sectors long plagued by poor market performance, such as pharmaceuticals and media, have garnered considerable attention after integrating AI ideasOn February 19, stocks in the AI healthcare sector surged, with BGI Genomics spiking over 13%—a peak unseen since April 2023. Other stocks like Kemei Diagnosis and several in international medicine also reached their limitsSome market analysts propose the potential for AI to reverse undervaluation in various sectors.
“AI has the potential to enhance market expectations through technological empowerment and innovative business frameworks,” Wu Haijian opined, suggesting that, in the short term, the market’s enthusiasm for AI may stimulate valuation recovery in sectors like pharmaceuticals and media
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However, such sentiment-driven surges require substantiation through actual performanceIn the long run, effective deployment of AI in drug development and diagnostic optimization within healthcare, as well as content generation and personalized experiences in media, could tangibly elevate industry valueBoth policy and capital support are likely to influence the boost AI offers these sectors, but the ultimate success will hinge on the real progress of technology and industry consolidation.
“AI’s integration with various industries pushes the market to rethink valuations across sectors—however, currently, the AI+ industry remains at an early stage,” cautioned Lei TaoThis thorough examination emphasizes the need for careful discernment regarding which segments of traditional industries can genuinely gain from AI technologies, as not all domains will efficiently leverage AI for value creationThis indicates that initiatives to rejuvenate specific industries using AI may only yield local successes, confined to areas where fruitful synergies can truly develop.
Liu Zhongteng expressed a similar sentiment about technology’s swift advancements, particularly looking ahead to 2025. After the initial buzz surrounding DeepSeek, numerous sectors have experienced surges, while the cross-industry impact of AI suggests ongoing stimulation for financial and medical-related industries.
“The frenzied market activity reflects participants' grappling with the ramifications of DeepSeek’s influence on the AI sector,” Guo Liangliang commentedFollowing DeepSeek's surge, adjustments in share prices among global tech giants ensued, while stocks of companies within China’s related industrial chain laggedNotably, even with forecasts indicating a substantial uptick in capital expenditure by leading tech firms through 2025, pre-training industry firms saw little effect on their stock values
This can be attributed to DeepSeek’s emergence altering the narrative surrounding AI investments.
Guo Liangliang articulated that DeepSeek embodies a pivotal shift towards “model equality.” The implications of model equality are substantial, facilitating broad and affordable access to premier models for enhanced user experiences and improved return on investment (ROI). A surge in applications tapping into top models portends a future rise in demands for cloud computing capabilities and improvements in IDC rates of implementationThe market’s keen interest in companies dealing with applications and computational power follows a coherent industrial logic.
What lays beneath AI+’s logic?
Looking back through the evolution of the information technology sector, the industry has transitioned from information dissemination to internet connectivity, followed by cloud technology, culminating in the age of AI-driven intelligenceLiu Zhongteng asserts that the shift from “Internet Plus” to “AI Plus” is not only a natural progression in technological evolution but also a direct result of Moore's Law continuing to thriveThe prior phase of China’s internet landscape persisted from 2000 until 2015, while the global tech industry has entered the era of artificial intelligence post-2020, suggesting an anticipated acceleration phase lasting a minimum of 15-20 years.
“The evolution from ‘Internet Plus’ to ‘AI Plus’ illustrates the continuous advancement of the tech sector, where each phase presents new opportunities born from innovationFor investors, maintaining vigilance on industry developments is crucial; where technology progresses, so too must our focus be directed
Such attention ensures we remain attuned to the rhythm of technological development and make more informed investment resolutions,” remarked Lei Tao.
Wu Haijian concurred, highlighting that the shift from “Internet Plus” to “AI Plus” signifies a transition from connectivity and digitization towards automation and intelligence. “Internet Plus” catalyzed connectivity across diverse sectors, propelling information flow and inspiring innovative business models—giving rise to e-commerce and online service platformsIn contrast, “AI Plus,” driven by artificial intelligence, injects capabilities into machine learning, decision-making, and personalized services, extending its applications across healthcare, education, finance, and manufacturing sectors, thereby remarkably enhancing productivity and user satisfactionThis transition not only constitutes a technological upgrade but also represents a substantial overhaul in the prevailing business dynamics and societal operations while spurring industry intelligenceMoreover, it gives rise to new challenges concerning data privacy, algorithm fairness, and potential ramifications for future economic progression and societal advancement.
“The commercial worth of internet technology matured at a relatively linear pace, where each area touched by the internet would enhance connectivity, mitigate information asymmetries, and lower systemic operating costsThis linearity allowed for a gradual, predictable evolution of internet applications in business,” Guo Liangliang emphasizedConversely, the commercial viability of AI is contingent on reaching a technical maturity threshold, which correspondingly aligns with human cognitive potential—this starting point is nowThus, there are grounds to believe that AI’s market value will manifest robustly over the coming years, constituting a significant driver for productivity enhancement and societal progress.
When assessing which sectors hold the most explosive potential within the AI+ paradigm, Wu Haijian expresses enthusiasm for consumer-facing (AI+2C) as well as business-facing (AI+2B) avenues
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