In recent months, the movements of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two giants of the housing mortgage finance sector, have caught the attention of investors, inciting a fervent discussion about their trajectories and potential consequencesHedge fund mogul Bill Ackman has emerged as a notable beneficiary amid this market volatility, while also facing a fair share of controversies.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac play pivotal roles in the housing mortgage marketThey are responsible for acquiring housing mortgages, bundling them into securities, and selling these to investors, thus continuously injecting liquidity into the housing mortgage marketThis allows lending institutions to maintain a flow of new loans, acting as the linchpin of the real estate financial systemHowever, during the global financial crisis of 2008, as the housing market crumbled, the financial health of these two companies sharply declined, ultimately resulting in their takeover by the U.S. government.

Following their government takeover, the preferred shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac underwent a prolonged period of stagnation

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For most of the past 15 years, the excess profits they generated were funneled to the U.STreasury instead of being distributed to investors, leading to a trading price for these preferred shares that was at least 90% lower than historical highsHowever, a dramatic shift occurred in the market earlier this yearAs of Tuesday, the stocks of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had surged significantly, up 121% and 99% year-to-date respectivelySince November last year, this upward momentum has been particularly rapid, exceeding 420%. By Wednesday, the price increase accelerated further, with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares rising by an additional 4%, reaching levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis.

The primary driver of this stock surge is investor speculation that the U.S. government may move to re-privatize these two government-sponsored enterprisesThis expectation is not baseless; billionaire investor Bill Ackman is a prominent advocate of this ideaAckman revealed that he has held shares in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for over a decade, finally seeing a profitable moment arriveLast month, he published a 104-page buy recommendation report on the X platform, endorsing the two companiesIn this report, he argued that ending government conservatorship “aligns with the need for a streamlined government” (akin to the concepts like DOGE). From his viewpoint, privatization would not only revitalize these companies but also align with the broader trend of reducing government functions and unlocking market potential.

However, the prospect of privatization has sparked widespread controversy in the marketOpponents express significant concerns that privatization may result in a range of adverse consequences

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Chief among these worries is that privatization could lead to rising mortgage ratesDuring the conservatorship, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have had some capacity to stabilize mortgage rates, but upon privatization, the profit-seeking nature of corporations may drive them to increase loan rates, which would undoubtedly burden homebuyers and could even inhibit the growth of the real estate marketFurthermore, opponents fear that privatization may reignite the reckless behaviors that led to the 2008 crisisPrior to the financial meltdown, financial institutions, in pursuit of high profits, recklessly issued high-risk mortgages, culminating in market collapseIf Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were to privatize without stringent government oversight, they might fall back into similar risk-taking behaviors, posing substantial risks to financial markets.

Conversely, supporters present a different perspectiveThey argue that both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now well-capitalized, and their financial situation is substantially stronger compared to the years leading up to the 2008 crisisAfter years of reforms and restructuring, both companies have significantly improved in areas such as risk management and capital reserves, positioning them better to adapt to market changesPrivatization would grant them greater market flexibility and innovation impetus, potentially enhancing operational efficiency, yielding better returns for investors, and promoting the healthy development of the housing mortgage market.

Analysts generally believe that even if the U.S. government indeed plans to re-privatize these two companies, it will be a lengthy processThe “optimistic estimate” suggests that it might not occur until 2026 or 2027. In the meantime, uncertainties remain in the market, with various factors capable of influencing the privatization process and the stock price trajectories of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The fluctuations in the stock prices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under the anticipation of privatization, along with the resulting market disputes, reflect not only a keen interest in the future trajectories of these two companies but also illuminate the complex interplay between financial policies and market interests.